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US President-elect Donald Trump's recent statements on trade, including the threat of 100% tariffs against the BRICS nations if they seek to dethrone the dollar, warrant caution and careful monitoring, said Bob Willen, managing partner and chairman of Kearney, a leading global management consulting firm. On his second visit to India within the last six months, Willen spoke to Vinod Mahanta in an interview about Trump, the growth of global capability centres (GCCs) in India and the transformative role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in shaping the future of companies. Edited excerpts:President-elect Donald Trump has warned BRICS members of 100% tariffs if they launch their own currency or support an alternative to the US dollar as the world's reserve. Should this be a cause for concern for India and its businesses?There's definitely a sense of caution to see how things will actually unfold. He's a dealmaker-practical and deeply concerned about markets, especially public markets.If he notices his policies are having a negative impact on the markets, he’s likely to backtrack quickly. We’ve also observed that a lot of his focus seems to be on trade deficits, particularly with countries that have significant trade imbalances with the US. It will be good for India. I don’t think there's a significant cause for concern, but it’s certainly a time to be circumspect—understand what’s happening globally and see how it plays out on the ground.Could Trump’s America First approach lead to significant global trade repercussions?Yeah, I agree. If countries start imposing trade barriers and tariffs, it goes against the principles of globalisation, right? It leads to a more fragmented, localised world, and that’s definitely a concern for the global economy. That said, there are also indicators that much of this might be focused on US trade policies. Meanwhile, the rest of the world continues to move forward—bilateral trade is growing, for instance. It’s not necessarily that globalisation itself is at risk, it’s more about a shift in dynamics—more trade in the Global South, for example.Will Trump’s policies accelerate deglobalisation?I think it will. To be clear, I do believe it will accelerate some level of deglobalisation. However, I don’t think it’ll be as severe as some of the projections suggest. There are simply too many other patterns of trade that remain viable and accessible and, in fact, those may even receive a boost as a result.India is fast becoming a business services hub with over 1,700 GCCs operating in the country. Is this growth sustainable, and what factors will determine the trajectory of India's dominance in the GCC landscape?I don't think India will capture all this business. We're seeing other low-cost centres emerging—Vietnam, for instance, has benefited significantly from the shift away from China. However, India remains well-positioned for continued growth in the GCC market. At Kearney, we've adopted a Center of Excellence model here, leveraging India's cost advantages and balancing lower costs with strong capabilities.Manufacturing seems to have bounced back in India, but it’s still baby steps. What structural reforms, policy shifts and investments are required for India to effectively compete against the scale, efficiency, and innovation of the China model?I think, first, looking at the global context, as a firm, we’ve done some work around what we call the new era of industrial policy, where governments play an active role in shaping growth within specific economic sectors. This aligns closely with the Make in India initiative. It’s not just about manufacturing as a whole but often about being very sector-specific—understanding what’s needed to build the right ecosystem in a particular industry.India has clear strengths in areas like IT and digital, but pharma stands out as another promising sector. India already has momentum in pharmaceuticals and generics manufacturing, supported by an ecosystem well-suited to drive growth in these areas.That said, for initiatives like Make in India to truly succeed, the government must focus on building the right ecosystems behind it.How has Kearney India performed?We’ve experienced strong growth in India and expect it to continue. While 2022 was a particularly robust year, 2023–24 saw more moderate growth, which is typical for a growth market. As the Unilever CEO aptly put it in a recent quote—growth isn’t always a straight line. India is a critical market for us, and we’re focused on getting our strategy right. We’ve been doubling our presence every four years or so, and we aim to stay on that trajectory.A whole lot of mid-sized consulting firms have capsized. How has Kearney weathered the storm and maintained its place amid industry disruptions?I’d like us to be bigger, and I don’t hesitate to say that. Scale brings advantages—better returns on investment, among other things. But we’re also very clear about who we are and how we add value. Some of our competitors find that growing too large can dilute their value proposition, and we’re mindful of that.Our clients know exactly what they get when they work with Kearney. We are a pure-play strategy consulting firm with a strong operations focus. This clarity allows us to address most business processes, analyse operations, and deliver tangible impact.How is Kearney approaching AI—viewing it as a threat to traditional consulting or embracing it as an opportunity for transformation?We see AI as perhaps the most exciting technological advancement in decades, with profound potential to reshape how organisations operate. That said, its transformative power hinges on the availability of robust, well-organised datasets.We believe it’s still very early days for AI. The initial wave of hype has started to subside, and organisations are now focusing on what truly makes a difference—not just chasing trends but thinking fundamentally about their needs and how AI can address them. At Kearney, we see AI as a significant opportunity for transformation, not a threat. We believe in its potential, but we also recognise that its impact will unfold over many years. The key lies in balancing technological advancements with cultural and organisational readiness.An increasingly multipolar world is beginning to decrease American dominance over business. What’s your view?Absolutely. But I don’t think it’s just increasingly—it’s already quite significant. Take the Middle East, for example. Historically, the region's trade and influence were heavily tied to energy and guided by its relationship with the US, relying on American leadership for clarity and direction. Now, though, the Middle East is clearly pivoting in a multipolar world. This shift doesn’t just signal a decline in American dominance but also opens up new opportunities in this evolving global dynamic.Nominations for ET MSME Awards are now open. The last day to apply is December 15, 2024. Click here to submit your entry for any one or more of the 22 categories and stand a chance to win a prestigious award.
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